Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Wednesday 08 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 12790 (+1944) 395612 (+30896) 21674 (+2138) 361148 (+26814)
France 10328 (+1417) 109069 (+11059) 19337 (+2087) 79404 (+7555)
United Kingdom 6159 (+786) 55242 (+3634) 135 (+0) 48948 (+2848)
Spain 14045 (+704) 141942 (+5267) 43208 (+2771) 84689 (+1792)
Italy 17127 (+604) 135586 (+3039) 24392 (+1555) 94067 (+880)
Belgium 2035 (+403) 22194 (+1380) 4157 (+171) 16002 (+806)
Netherlands 2101 (+234) 19580 (+777) 250 (+0) 17229 (+543)
Germany 2016 (+206) 107663 (+4289) 36081 (+7381) 69566 (-3298)
Iran 3872 (+133) 62589 (+2089) 27039 (+2803) 31678 (-847)
Brazil 686 (+122) 14034 (+1851) 127 (+0) 13221 (+1729)
Sweden 591 (+114) 7693 (+487) 205 (+0) 6897 (+373)
Turkey 725 (+76) 34109 (+3892) 1582 (+256) 31802 (+3560)
Canada 381 (+58) 17897 (+1231) 4028 (+494) 13488 (+679)
Switzerland 821 (+56) 22253 (+596) 8704 (+648) 12728 (-108)
Ireland 210 (+36) 5709 (+345) 25 (+0) 5474 (+309)
Portugal 345 (+34) 12442 (+712) 184 (+44) 11913 (+634)
Mexico 125 (+31) 2439 (+296) 633 (+0) 1681 (+265)
Ecuador 220 (+29) 3995 (+248) 140 (+40) 3635 (+179)
Austria 243 (+23) 12639 (+342) 4046 (+583) 8350 (-264)
Poland 129 (+22) 4848 (+435) 191 (+29) 4528 (+384)
Romania 197 (+21) 4417 (+360) 460 (+54) 3760 (+285)
Algeria 193 (+20) 1468 (+45) 113 (+23) 1162 (+2)
Denmark 203 (+16) 5071 (+390) 1491 (+113) 3377 (+261)
Peru 107 (+15) 2954 (+393) 1301 (+304) 1546 (+74)
India 150 (+14) 5311 (+533) 421 (+46) 4740 (+473)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 78637 (+7355) 1343976 (+82297) 224661 (+23528)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 83244 ( +5448) 1408447 ( +69963) 241461 ( +18368)
Thu 09 April 2020 88462 ( +5218) 1473800 ( +65353) 259278 ( +17816)
Fri 10 April 2020 93394 ( +4932) 1534192 ( +60391) 276292 ( +17014)
Sat 11 April 2020 97996 ( +4602) 1589444 ( +55252) 292300 ( +16008)
Sun 12 April 2020 102239 ( +4244) 1639536 ( +50091) 307153 ( +14853)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 3331 (+0) 81740 (+32) 77167 (+89)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 3265 ( +0) 81069 ( +0) 75883 ( +48)
Thu 09 April 2020 3265 ( +0) 81069 ( +0) 75925 ( +42)
Fri 10 April 2020 3265 ( +0) 81069 ( +0) 75961 ( +36)
Sat 11 April 2020 3265 ( +0) 81069 ( +0) 75993 ( +32)
Sun 12 April 2020 3266 ( +0) 81069 ( +0) 76020 ( +28)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 14045 (+704) 141942 (+5267) 43208 (+2771)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 14183 ( +409) 144177 ( +3598) 45665 ( +2363)
Thu 09 April 2020 14522 ( +339) 147229 ( +3052) 47667 ( +2002)
Fri 10 April 2020 14800 ( +278) 149797 ( +2568) 49331 ( +1665)
Sat 11 April 2020 15025 ( +226) 151943 ( +2146) 50694 ( +1362)
Sun 12 April 2020 15207 ( +182) 153727 ( +1784) 51795 ( +1101)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 17127 (+604) 135586 (+3039) 24392 (+1555)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 17236 ( +386) 134680 ( +2072) 24794 ( +885)
Thu 09 April 2020 17573 ( +337) 136485 ( +1805) 25604 ( +810)
Fri 10 April 2020 17865 ( +292) 138050 ( +1565) 26339 ( +735)
Sat 11 April 2020 18117 ( +252) 139404 ( +1353) 27001 ( +662)
Sun 12 April 2020 18333 ( +216) 140570 ( +1166) 27594 ( +592)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 12790 (+1944) 395612 (+30896) 21674 (+2138)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 13831 ( +1303) 413480 ( +22592) 23255 ( +1746)
Thu 09 April 2020 15034 ( +1203) 433394 ( +19913) 24721 ( +1465)
Fri 10 April 2020 16113 ( +1079) 450648 ( +17254) 25913 ( +1192)
Sat 11 April 2020 17054 ( +942) 465377 ( +14729) 26859 ( +946)
Sun 12 April 2020 17858 ( +803) 477792 ( +12415) 27594 ( +735)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 10328 (+1417) 109069 (+11059) 19337 (+2087)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 11318 ( +1058) 119912 ( +10462) 24201 ( +2999)
Thu 09 April 2020 12344 ( +1026) 130735 ( +10823) 27624 ( +3423)
Fri 10 April 2020 13318 ( +974) 141820 ( +11086) 31532 ( +3908)
Sat 11 April 2020 14224 ( +905) 153061 ( +11241) 35992 ( +4460)
Sun 12 April 2020 15049 ( +825) 164343 ( +11282) 41084 ( +5091)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 3872 (+133) 62589 (+2089) 27039 (+2803)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 3773 ( +65) 66064 ( +2637) 28032 ( +2192)
Thu 09 April 2020 3831 ( +58) 68625 ( +2561) 30410 ( +2378)
Fri 10 April 2020 3882 ( +51) 71097 ( +2473) 32990 ( +2580)
Sat 11 April 2020 3927 ( +45) 73473 ( +2375) 35788 ( +2799)
Sun 12 April 2020 3966 ( +39) 75744 ( +2271) 38825 ( +3036)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 2016 (+206) 107663 (+4289) 36081 (+7381)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 2139 ( +155) 109612 ( +2867) 44517 ( +6204)
Thu 09 April 2020 2278 ( +139) 112076 ( +2465) 51726 ( +7208)
Fri 10 April 2020 2399 ( +121) 114178 ( +2102) 60101 ( +8376)
Sat 11 April 2020 2503 ( +104) 115960 ( +1781) 69833 ( +9732)
Sun 12 April 2020 2590 ( +87) 117460 ( +1500) 81141 ( +11308)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 6159 (+786) 55242 (+3634) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 6767 ( +606) 59627 ( +4038) 187 ( +10)
Thu 09 April 2020 7313 ( +547) 63393 ( +3766) 198 ( +11)
Fri 10 April 2020 7792 ( +478) 66847 ( +3454) 209 ( +11)
Sat 11 April 2020 8199 ( +408) 69965 ( +3118) 221 ( +12)
Sun 12 April 2020 8539 ( +340) 72740 ( +2775) 234 ( +13)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 591 (+114) 7693 (+487) 205 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 622 ( +60) 8218 ( +470) 211 ( +0)
Thu 09 April 2020 680 ( +58) 8682 ( +464) 211 ( +0)
Fri 10 April 2020 734 ( +54) 9137 ( +455) 211 ( +0)
Sat 11 April 2020 783 ( +49) 9579 ( +442) 211 ( +0)
Sun 12 April 2020 827 ( +44) 10006 ( +427) 211 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 2101 (+234) 19580 (+777) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 2140 ( +103) 19916 ( +625) 250 ( +0)
Thu 09 April 2020 2229 ( +88) 20464 ( +548) 250 ( +0)
Fri 10 April 2020 2304 ( +75) 20939 ( +475) 250 ( +0)
Sat 11 April 2020 2366 ( +63) 21349 ( +410) 250 ( +0)
Sun 12 April 2020 2418 ( +52) 21699 ( +350) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 129 (+22) 4848 (+435) 191 (+29)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 149 ( +21) 5145 ( +351) 210 ( +20)
Thu 09 April 2020 172 ( +23) 5481 ( +336) 224 ( +14)
Fri 10 April 2020 196 ( +24) 5798 ( +317) 234 ( +10)
Sat 11 April 2020 222 ( +25) 6092 ( +294) 240 ( +6)
Sun 12 April 2020 248 ( +26) 6363 ( +270) 244 ( +4)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 821 (+56) 22253 (+596) 8704 (+648)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 860 ( +43) 22032 ( +314) 11596 ( +2062)
Thu 09 April 2020 898 ( +38) 22293 ( +262) 14104 ( +2508)
Fri 10 April 2020 931 ( +33) 22510 ( +217) 17154 ( +3050)
Sat 11 April 2020 959 ( +28) 22689 ( +179) 20864 ( +3710)
Sun 12 April 2020 983 ( +24) 22836 ( +147) 25377 ( +4512)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 07 April 2020 2035 (+403) 22194 (+1380) 4157 (+171)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 08 April 2020 2136 ( +203) 22823 ( +925) 5448 ( +751)
Thu 09 April 2020 2328 ( +192) 23634 ( +811) 6319 ( +871)
Fri 10 April 2020 2505 ( +177) 24336 ( +702) 7330 ( +1011)
Sat 11 April 2020 2664 ( +159) 24938 ( +602) 8502 ( +1172)
Sun 12 April 2020 2804 ( +140) 25449 ( +511) 9862 ( +1360)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.